1 On the observed and modeled development of Hurricane Earl ( 2010 ) during rapid intensification
نویسندگان
چکیده
Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensification remains difficult despite research efforts to improve numerical weather prediction models. This study aims to examine Hurricane Earl’s rapid intensification in order to gain a better understanding of the observed and modeled intensification process. 113 dropwindsondes were analyzed before, during, and after RI in the eye, eyewall, and outer rainband to study the evolution of the thermodynamic and dynamic vertical profiles at these locations. Afterword, modeled vertical thermodynamic and wind profiles were analyzed with the dropwindsonde data to determine how the Hurricane Forecast Research and Forecasting (HWRF) System modeled the rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl. Thereafter, idealized warm core structures were analyzed to develop a theory as to how the structure of the warm core affects the minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). This theory was compared to Hurricane Earl’s warm core. Results show the development of a subsidence-induced dry layer in the eye and a saturated column in the eyewall. Additionally, neither the difference in the observed and modeled temperature, wind speed, or wind direction statistically influenced the difference in the observed and modeled MSLP. Furthermore, the depth of the warm core was determined as the most important factor in altering the MSLP of a TC, with the large depth of Hurricane Earl’s warm core contributing to its RI.
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